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Showing posts from August, 2013

Oil Prices- Risk of Supply Shock/ Terror Not Accurately Priced In

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In early August it was reported that Yemen foiled an Al Qaeda plot to take over gas and oil facilities in the country. This follows a pattern of the group attempting to do both material and symbolic damage to Western economies. Think World Trade Centers.
If At First You Don’t Succeed Al Qaeda originally tried to blow up the trade centers with massive bombs. The attempt was unsuccessful, years later, they hijacked planes on 9/11 …

Prediction Once again, the terror group will keep to its habit of choosing a target and going after it. They will conduct an all out attack on several oil installations at once, to damage and humiliate Western powers, an attempt to demonstrate they are still a viable power. Of course, oil prices would zoom upwards. This coupled with the impending war of Egypt’s army and Islamists (the potential of Suez canal disruption is factored into oil’s price by many analysts) civil war in Syria, and a potential air strike/ invasion of Iran, along with the continued in…